The US-31 Land Use Study at MSU was supported in part by the
Michigan
Department of Transportation.
Project Overview
Forecasting urban sprawl provides decision support for planners and policy makers. In this study we modeled the amount and location of potential urbanization in the year 2020 for Ottawa County, Michigan.
The goal was to compare a series of road networks proposed by the Michigan Department of Transportation (MDOT) as part of the federal highway US-31 bypass project. We determined the transportation network influence on the location of future urban sprawl by integrating several data types and modeling techniques including:
Satellite Imagery
Economic Data
Demographic Data
Land Values
Travel Demand Modeling
Geographic Information System (GIS) Network Analysis
Econometric Land Use Modeling - Generalized "Bid-Rent" Theory
For each road scenario we calculated the pressure for urbanization development over a one-kilometer grid covering Ottawa County and the surrounding three counties using a three-node urban market structure. Sub-setting Ottawa County, we aggregated the results to the minor civil division level (townships and cities) and found land use differentiation among road scenarios according to the variations in land value and transportation access to markets.
While all townships are forecasted to experience increases in urbanization by the year 2020, each scenario affects each township differently. Results highlight the importance of policy intervention and regional coordination for shaping and influencing future urbanization.
